Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-12

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Dec. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-11

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Nov. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-10

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Oct. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Chart Update

S&P 500 chart update and 3 scenarios

Russell 2000 chart update

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-09

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Sep. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-08

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Aug. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-07

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Jul. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-06

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Jun. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-05

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for May. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

AMZN looks ripe to correct

AMZN may retreat to retest 209, the previous resistance as its support soon

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-04

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Apr. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

Patience is Key at Time of Conflicting Signs

When there are signs in the market that are in conflict with your decision, how do you act, this is a key question in trading.  For example, stock XYZ broke out after a couple of months consolidation with zoomed volume and upward trending 50DMA, your decision tend to follow xyz's breakout.  Sure, breakout means some sort of certainty, duration of previous trend can be evidence for certainty as well, the longer the duration, the more likelihood trend is about to change; plus the volume and 50DMA, the heavier volume is, the more reliable of breakout in terms of indication of new trend's direction.  But the conflicting sign is that broad market has risen continuously for a couple of months and due for a pullback, this usually means picture is not clear, and there are still uncertainties. but conflicting signs means uncertainties.  Trading is about being patient at most of time, waiting for uncertainties to clean out by passing of time, then take action at the right time when number of uncertainties are minimal regarding whether a new trend is about to start or not.

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-03

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Mar. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

SINA higher lows

After an 8 month downtrend that brought down SINA a whopping 66% from 148 to 48, SINA is forming an uptrend that lasted about 2.5 months by making one higher lows at 61 about 1.5 months after early Jan bottom at 48.  It's now testing upward trending 50 DMA at 68 with no special bad news, therefore it's a high probability bet that this test will result in another higher low at 68 and leads another leg up.

Downside Risk: LT trend is down, it's not clear how much higher this reflexive counter trend up leg will go.

Time Series analysis: given the previous down leg lasted 8 months, this counter trend could last 5 months which means it will end at around late May or early June.

Another note is that SINA's shape has almost followed China Shanghai Index (SSEC) like clock step.  This prediction can be applied to SSEC with a high probability

Probability of another leg up up to late May: 65%
Probability of a down leg: 35%

AMZN bullish breakout

After 2.5 month 31% down trend, and 2.5 months of side-way trading, AMZN rose 4% today with heavier than average volume with no significant news while broad market is down.

The fact that this rise happens when AMZN hovers around 50 DMA for a couple of weeks and 50 DMA is slightly tilting upwards increases the credibility of this action and the possibility that this action leads a new short-term trend.

On downsides, at 141 trailing PE, it's trading at very high premium; AAPL, the tech sector leader and heavy weight is doing a parabolic rise lately, whose potential fall will lead to a crash in broad sector.

Possibility of a short term trend to retest all-time high $246: 60%
Possibility of a fake-move: 40%

BIDU mid-term prediction

Yesterday's BIDU Q4 earning release did not cause big change in price action.  BIDU is today being rejected in a hard way at downward sloping resistance line with heavy volume.  My most updated prediction of BIDU is that it's currently going through a side-way topping process which will last a few months up to this summer, accompanied by Chinese Shanghai stock index bull market.  In these months, there will be higher lows, lower highs, reflecting transition of power from bulls to bears.  During these months, big institutions secretly distribute their holdings to small investors in preparation for bear market, BIDU's bear market will not start until the complete of distribution process.   The topping process will finally end by bulls giving up control to bears.

My prediction may well be wrong.  But it would be interesting to validate after a few months the outcome given recent reports with contradictory indications:

• Goldman gave $176 PT for BIDU: http://www.webinquirer.co.uk/baidu-com-shares-given-new-176-00-price-target-by-analyst-at-goldman-sachs-bidu/11984/
• Soros lifted holding of BIDU by 170%: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/135034/george-soros-top-5-chinese-stocks-bidu-iss-fmcn-cisg-kh

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-01

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Jan. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

Short Covering on China stocks while Baltic Dry Slump

Massive shorts covering are happening on New York listed China stocks today, following 2 day strong bottom fishing rally on Shanghai Index.  Indicating the tipping point of Chinese monetary policy turning from tightening to easing has very likely happened. At the same time, Baltic Dry Index continues to slump to historical low levels.