Short Covering on China stocks while Baltic Dry Slump

Massive shorts covering are happening on New York listed China stocks today, following 2 day strong bottom fishing rally on Shanghai Index.  Indicating the tipping point of Chinese monetary policy turning from tightening to easing has very likely happened. At the same time, Baltic Dry Index continues to slump to historical low levels.

Baltic Dry and Crude Oil chart follow-ups

Almost exactly as I pointed out in previous post 3 weeks ago, BDI met resistance at 50% retracement level from mid-May high and early July low and is now heading down again.  BDI has been a reliable leading indicator for US equity markets, so this is a negative signal to bullish investors

It turned out one of the fibonacci lines I drew 3 weeks ago turned out to be resistance, Crude Oil first touched its 61.8% retracement between early August high and late August low, now it's heading down.

This happens at the same time when the AAII bullish sentiment reached 3 year highest level, and S&P 500 index stuck at the 1130 resistance level.  So the outlook of US stock market does not look pretty, and this echoes the poor economic data stream lately.

On the positive side, Bond has been in confirmed down trend, while EURO/JPY has been in up trend, as long as these trends continue, the outlook of US equity markets is promising. 

With all the above said, the outlook of US equity market is uncertain, with a slight higher downside risk in the near term and very high downside risk in the intermediate term.