Shanghai Index Chart Analysis

In my previous post, I tried to predict the low end  target of this round of Shanghai's bear market / bull market consolidation.  Recently, Shanghai rose for 2 consecutive trading days, now the index is above 10 day EMA with higher than normal volume.

The chart above indicates Shanghai index is indeed at potential turning point:
1. two sets of Fibonacci scales, 1st from 2007 high to 2008 low, 2nd from 2008 low to 2009 high
2. the 2009 bull market ends at 38% level of 1st Fibonacci scale
3. we are now at 50% level of 2nd Fibonacci scale

If the scenario of consolidation ending soon turns out to be true, then the target of this market would be 61.8% of 1st Fibonacci scale, or 4400 level which is about 76% upside, and consider what will happen to Crude (USO) and Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (CAF)

However, potential risk to this scenario is that rate hike hasn't happened yet.  If it does, does it have potential to kill the possible rally?  I would keep an eye on moving averages as trigger to enter.