The S&P 500 neck line of March 09 head and shoulder bottom was 950, indicating the price target being 1233, the market's intermediate top on April 26th was 1219.8, just a few points below the target. Then we know the market violently crashed about 10% in next 2 weeks ended on 1110.88 on May 7th. The question is whether this is end of rally or is it a deep correction?
Signs supporting correction include:
- The rally started last March didn't experience any correction deeper than 10%, which opens up possibility of a 10%+ correction
- This correction may be similar to Jan correction in the fashion that it breaks rising wedge formation and forms a less upward sloping new rising wedge.
- April 26th market top was very close to, but has not reached price target of inverse head and shoulder pattern
- VIX spiked too fast (almost 200% increase in 2 weeks) which is comparable to what market experienced in late 2008, however, US economy now is in much better form than that of late 2008
- As of April 27, Bull/Bear spread (Investor Intelligence bullish sentiment minus bearish sentiment) is reaching towards 40 danger zone, but has not yet arrived there yet. For more details, see here.
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