Light Crude Oil chart analysis

This past week, crude oil rebounded from oversold situation with above than average volume (based on ETF USO information), how long will this rally last?  Is this rally short term, intermediate term or long term?  As you can see from the chart below, crude oil is facing triple resistance ahead at ~$77 area (50DMA, 50% Fib retracement and lower trend line of July-August rally channel).  Let's put aside reckoning of how much probability that crude oil will break this triple resistance, just focus on reactions: if it does break above that resistance, then we should long the equities, otherwise the trend remains down.

Shanghai Index Chart Analysis

In my previous post, I tried to predict the low end  target of this round of Shanghai's bear market / bull market consolidation.  Recently, Shanghai rose for 2 consecutive trading days, now the index is above 10 day EMA with higher than normal volume.

The chart above indicates Shanghai index is indeed at potential turning point:
1. two sets of Fibonacci scales, 1st from 2007 high to 2008 low, 2nd from 2008 low to 2009 high
2. the 2009 bull market ends at 38% level of 1st Fibonacci scale
3. we are now at 50% level of 2nd Fibonacci scale

If the scenario of consolidation ending soon turns out to be true, then the target of this market would be 61.8% of 1st Fibonacci scale, or 4400 level which is about 76% upside, and consider what will happen to Crude (USO) and Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (CAF)

However, potential risk to this scenario is that rate hike hasn't happened yet.  If it does, does it have potential to kill the possible rally?  I would keep an eye on moving averages as trigger to enter.