The market dropped big today with no news, but rather after investor digested Fed's decision yesterday. My gut feeling is that today is start of big scale market decline in next few months, for three reasons:
1. Technical. The bull market since last March was filled with rising wedge formations. One from last March to this January, it ended with a 8% drop; the second from last March to this April, it ended with 17% drop; and since early July to early August, market (or SPX) is forming the third rising wedge, and with no exception, it stopped to the down side. Both previous rising wedge formation stopped with waterfall like declines, I see no reason this time is different.
2. Dollar. The US Dollar has retraced about 50% of its gain since last December to this June, and rebounded at its historical important support level, the rebound is convincing with big volume, this indicates that Deflation is real.
3. Bond. The Treasury yield has been in firm down trend since early April, and bond prices have been in strong up trend in the same time. This again sends a clear message that recession is near and Deflation is real. It's very rare that bond investors mistakenly judge the direction of economy since they are more sophisticated and more focused on economic fundamentals than equity investors.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
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