Saturday, April 17, 2010

US Stock Market Correction Forecast and Outlook of Major Stock Index

In early 2010, many people took bearish stances on US stocks, the correction started on Jan 19th caused many to believe that the stock market top of the year is in, however, the 9% correction ended abruptly in early February, what's more surprising and unexpected was the following powerful rally that lasted more than 2 months: NASDAQ rallied 15.5%, S&P 500 rallied 12.7%, DOW rallied 11.1%.  Just as investor sentiment became vastly bullish and market turned overbought (defined as RSI70 above 70) for more than a month, on April 16th, market tumbled 1+% on extremely high volume (S&P over 6B), putting the powerful rally to a squeezing stop.

I believe there are two possible scenarios mid term if 4/16 was indeed start of a correction.  Scenario A is more favorable to bullish investors, it assumes the supporting trend line from March 09 low to Feb 10 low (blue lines) to hold until August.  Scenario B, on the other hand, doesn't take such a bullish stance.  We notice that this post bear market rally can be split into two rallies characterized by two supporting trend lines: one from March to this January, the other from this Feb to April 16th, the second rally is powerful yet it's sitting on a trend line (blue lines) less bullishly tilted than first (pink lines). This fact caused me to draw a Scenario B where we will have a third as well as last part of this rally which just like the one from Feb to April, will sit on a trend line (green lines) even less bullishly tilted.  I must admit the third supporting trend line is totally fictional, by drawing that line, I am indicating the existence of this trend line is possible.  Based on this understanding, the following charts illustrate my forecast of S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW in the mid-term (click on images to read my comments).
S&P 500
NASDAQ
 
 DOW JONES

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