Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Shortable ETFs and Leveraged ETFs

Usually ETFs can be shorted, but I found that many Leveraged ETFs do not allow to be shorted, so in order to prepare for trading, I compile a list of Leveraged ETFs that allow shorting:
Sector Select Financial (XLF)
ProShares Ultra S&P (2x S&P) SSO (last dividend 8c per share paid on June 22nd)
ProShares UltraShort S&P (2x S&P Inversed) SDS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) (last dividend 10c per share paid on March 23rd)

Here is a list of Leveraged ETFs that do not allow being short:
ProShares Ultra Nasdaq (2x NASDAQ) QLD
ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG)

US Stock Indexes broke down from head and shoulder neckline

Major US stock market indexes broke down from head and shoulder neckline today.
  • S&P 500 H&S top is 1220, neck line is slightly downward tilted at 1042 area, so price target is 1042-(1220-1042) = 864, or 16% lower than today's close 1030
  • NASDAQ H&S top is 2512, neck line is slightly upward tilted at 2120 area, so price target is 2120 - (2512-2120) = 1728, or 18% lower than today's close 2109
It is imminent now to take actions to protect your portfolio if you are long stock market.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

TBT and TLT Chart Analysis: Bond Yield bullish reversal?


TBT formed a piercing line candle pattern today at historical support at right above 37.  Today's lowest point is also the lowest point in the down trend since early April.  PPO is rising while price is making new low, showing a bullish divergence. 

On the contrary, TLT formed a dark cloud cover candle pattern.  PPO and price are showing bearish divergence.

From a purely technical perspective, above are evidences for a potential bullish reversal for bond yields and bearish reversal for bond prices.  With one concerning factor, volume for both TLT and TBT were below average. 

My gut feeling is that with the almost unstopped bull run since last March, the market needs to have a long and deep enough correction to balance the bullish side of the move.  

Advise to wait for more confirmation.