TLT chart analysis

TLT is bounced back from recent high of $94.7 and is attempting to form a bottom with a higher low.  Also the recent lower low of $90.16 is accompanied by flat MACD (13,34,9), a bullish divergence.  In addition, people are calling for ten-year yields to go back to 2.8% level, while it's now at 3.4%.  Should TLT successfully form higher low and breaks downward resistance line above, it's a good long candidate

US 20+ year bond chart analysis

US 20+ year bond ETF (TLT) has been in bearish trend recently, its recent low almost touched 61.8% retracement level.

While TLT's reverse version of ETF, US 20+ year bond short ETF (TBT) was in bullish trend recently, its recent high almost touched 38.2% retracement level.

The implications are to expect some sideway trading for both TBT and TLT before the trend resumes.

Focus on Long Term Treasury Bond (TLT)

TLT is back at end of June levels while S&P is rallied higher 7%+ from end of June level.  TLT is back because 98-99 was a support level, TLT is bouncing from that level.   Interestingly, this time, risk assets this time did not follow the bond market action, at least for now. 

Gut feeling is that TLT will make a lower high this time.

TBT and TLT Chart Analysis: Bond Yield bullish reversal?

TBT formed a piercing line candle pattern today at historical support at right above 37.  Today's lowest point is also the lowest point in the down trend since early April.  PPO is rising while price is making new low, showing a bullish divergence. 

On the contrary, TLT formed a dark cloud cover candle pattern.  PPO and price are showing bearish divergence.

From a purely technical perspective, above are evidences for a potential bullish reversal for bond yields and bearish reversal for bond prices.  With one concerning factor, volume for both TLT and TBT were below average. 

My gut feeling is that with the almost unstopped bull run since last March, the market needs to have a long and deep enough correction to balance the bullish side of the move.  

Advise to wait for more confirmation.