Showing posts with label QQQQ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QQQQ. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

US Stock Indexes broke down from head and shoulder neckline

Major US stock market indexes broke down from head and shoulder neckline today.
  • S&P 500 H&S top is 1220, neck line is slightly downward tilted at 1042 area, so price target is 1042-(1220-1042) = 864, or 16% lower than today's close 1030
  • NASDAQ H&S top is 2512, neck line is slightly upward tilted at 2120 area, so price target is 2120 - (2512-2120) = 1728, or 18% lower than today's close 2109
It is imminent now to take actions to protect your portfolio if you are long stock market.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Today's Markets Do Feels Like Bottom

Black Swan event happened today on the markets, when DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all falling from a cliff in the afternoon.  People are blaming machine trading and erroneous trader as the culprit of the massive tumble, Mark Fisher blamed HFT for today's event (http://www.cnbc.com/id/37002752), however, I don't agree.  If it is really caused by error, then why the market turned at the points they turned?  When the market turned, why they turned in that speed rather than slowly claw back, I do feel the markets act in its own mysterious way and logic, and what happened today is not accidental, far from an error.  I agree with Mark's comment, it is a warning and a signal of great danger ahead.  Program Trading may accelerated the fall, but I believe without machine trading, the market will do the same thing under this same circumstances.

Today's markets do remind me how they did in last March.  Their accelerating drop look very much like a left side of a giant head.  Volume was huge, for example, S&P's volume was 8.14B.  It's obvious that investors are fleeing the market, panic overwhelms, which means today is very likely capitulation day of this correction started on Apr 16th.  These are characteristics of a bottom.

If today's action is truly the head of reverse head and shoulder  formation, then price targets for the major markets are signaled:
NASDAQ's neck line is at 2420, head was at 2185, and price target after breakout would be 2670
S&P 500's neck line is at 1174, head was at 1066, and price target after breakout would be 1282
DOW's neck line is at 10941, head was at 9869, and price target after breakout would be 12013

For record of today's historical event, here are charts of today's markets
NASDAQ

S&P 500

DOW JONES