How to parse jobless claims message

WSJ ran a educational piece on 8/11/2011 on how to interpret jobless claims messages:

Perhaps the most important data release this week is Thursday's report on jobless claims. These Labor Department figures have a remarkable track record for pegging economic turning points.
They also can signal where stocks are headed.
Lately, claims have sent a mixed message. The outright level of jobless claims remains uncomfortably high; the four-week average stood at 407,750 as of July 30.
By contrast, two years into the last economic recovery, claims had fallen to about 360,000.
Still, the pace of newly filed claims has slowed a bit lately. The four-week average actually peaked in mid-May at about 440,000, and its improvement since did foreshadow the better tone of July's employment report.
There are a host of reasons now to suspect that the improvement may not last. First is the jump in layoff announcements of late. These hit a 16-month high in July, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, thanks to major cuts from large companies like Cisco Systems and Merck & Co.
Second is the sharp selloff in stocks, which has undermined confidence and deepened concerns about economic growth.
Third, Japan-related disruptions to typical auto-plant shutdowns this summer may keep claims artificially low.
All this may put upward pressure in the weeks ahead on jobless claims. The key, though, is whether they surpass year-earlier levels.
As John Lonski of Moody's Analytics notes, the last three recessions occurred after jobless claims posted significant year-on-year gains. For now, their level stands about 10% below where it was at this time last year.
"It is imperative for financial markets and for the economy that we avoid another upward trend," Mr. Lonski says.
There are glimmers of hope: The number of U.S. job openings edged higher in June, as separate Labor Department figures showed Wednesday. The ratio of unemployed to openings has now fallen from a high of over 6 to 1 to about 4.6 to 1.
Even so, it will be a long wait before openings, currently about 3.1 million, return to the 5 million level seen before the recession started in December 2007.
The labor market's rebound has so far been halting. It will need to take more than baby steps for the U.S. to get up and running again.