bull market started in 2009: the past and future

The bull  market started in March 2009 is very strong, impulsive, and fast in nature, with the goal of completely reversing the 2007-2009 bear market damage in about 3 years.  This post is intended to review the 2 years track of this bull market and based on that, lead to forecasts on likely timing and levels of future pivot points.

The bear market from 2007 to 2009 lasted for just less than 2 years, but it ran pretty fast, with the most of damage done in its 3rd leg down from May 2008 of S&P 1440 to Nov 2008 of S&P 741. Using Oct 2007 high and Mar 2009 low, the fibonacci levels provide excellent hints on the ensuing bull market pivot points.

The strong bull market started in 2009 fueled by historically low interest rate lasting for extended period of time will also have 5 legs.  Its first leg took 13 months and ended right on 61.8% retracement of entire 2007-2009 bear market drop: 1228 level in April 2010, then 2nd leg ABC correction lasted for a little over 2 months, clawed back 17% on S&P 500, ended on 38.2% retracement of 2007-2009 bear market drop: 1014 in early July 2010.  Then the 3rd  strong up leg took S&P 500 up 33% to 1344 in 6 and half months.  The 4th correction leg should have ABC pattern, started in mid-Feb, it corrected 6% to 1260 level, and had an upward bias.  After this correction 4th leg, the 5th up leg will have 5 sub-legs, to forecast the possible levels of these 5 sub-legs, we will divide the range from 1200 (the 61.8% retracement of bear drop) and 1576 (the bear market top) into fibonacci levels: 1344 - 38.2%, 1388 - 50% and 1432 - 61.8%.  

One possible scenario is: 1 sub leg will last 2 months and end at around 1440 level, 2nd correction sub-leg will correct 5% to 1388 level, then 3rd up leg will start aim at around 1523 level, and also last for 2 months, 4th correction leg may touch 1440 level, then final 5th up sub-leg will reach 1576.