Thursday, August 19, 2010

Now We have a Trend, and It's DOWN

Today's drop confirmed yesterday's rally was a lower high in the trend started Wednesday last week, so we have steep down trend lines (red lines) drawn in the US big 3 indexes.  The orange lines are previous down trend lines from late April to late June, blue lines are arbitrarily drawn between the two confirmed down trend lines.  For all three indexes, this trend is a little steeper than the previous one from April to June, indicating this time the market will take shorter time to drop the same magnitude than previously. 

Trend lines help people time the market.  The red lines draw us road maps of the first leg down.  After the first leg, I expect these trends to be broken to the upside then at some point market will turn back down again, at that time new pivot points will develop to form less steep trend lines in the next few months which will indicate road maps for those down legs.  So the timing of final bottom of this down trend is not clear right now, but I do have target prices of big 3 indexes bottom:
  • S&P 500: 836, about 23% lower than today's close 1075
  • NASDAQ: 1626, about 25% lower than today's close 2179
  • DJIA: 8173, about 21% lower than today's close 10271


S&P 500

NASDAQ

DJIA

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