United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), as a commodity ETF, tracks natural gas price poorly due to the impact of contango. The 1st chart below indicates how well UNG has been tracking Natural Gas price over time by using ratio between Natural Gas and UNG in last 8 months (a longer 1 year and 8 month chart is shown on lower right). The ratio can be interpreted as a metric of contango impact, at this point, it is my observation that we are at natural gas' historically low price point under historically high contango. This might be a bullish signal for UNG with a contrarian view point.
Friday, March 5, 2010
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