Earning Recap: Major Solars in Q4 2009

Solar's Q4 earnings continue to reflect two stories: western companies' market share continue to lose to low cost manufacturers in China, high demand due to year-end rush before German feed-in-tariff cut. 

JASO (2/11)

JASO is positioned to be an OEM provider.  Regarding the expected drop of ASP in 2H following feed-in-tariff cut in Germany, JASO CEO commented that their technology cost cutting roadmap lead them to larger cost cut than expected ASP drop in 2H.

Expecting 2H 2010 demand to be higher than 1H due to year-end rush, in anticipation of price decline, demand will pick up (which doesn't quite make sense).

71% of Q4 sales went from China.

2010 Outlook: 2010 shipment to come in 900MW exceeding previous guidance of 700-800MW in Sep-09. Q1 shipment 250-255MW. Q1 gross margin 20%.  Assuming feed-in-tariff 15% cut in Germany, expect ASP to drop 10-15%.  40% - 50% end sales are in Germany.

FSLR (2/18)

Q4 module manufacturing cost is 84c per watt.  According to FSLR forecast, global PV demand will grow at 20-30% rate from 5.2GW to 7.5GW in 2010 mainly driven by increased demand in France, Italy, US and China.

TSL (2/24)

Market share grew from 2.5% in 2008 to 6.5% in 2009.  Q4 non-silicon manufacturing cost is down from 82c to 78c per watt. Q4 polysilicon cost was 46c per watt, expect Q1 to drop 10-15% from Q4 level

ASP outlook: Expect 5-10% decline in Q1 including Euro exchange rate drop, Q2 to be flat to Q1 level, and 15-20% decline in full year 2010 including impact from Euro.

Shipment outlook: 1H 2010 350-400MW, keep 2H 2010 outlook unchanged at 750-800MW, 80% of which go to Europe

Margin outlook: 26-28% gross margin in Q1

Appendix: Historical P/E (courtesy of ycharts.com)

period	CSIQ	JASO	TSL	STP	YGE
Q4/06				50.0147
Q2/07				45.5875
Q3/07		37.42	103.5818
Q4/07		59.6077	74.7222	80.7059
Q1/08	29.0278	40.4348	35.7442	34.3729	26.7188
Q2/08	33.7731	25.1493	29.4615	28.5954	19.6543
Q3/08	13.1959	27.0256	15.5068	27.1742	13.775
Q4/08		21.85	8.0086	19.1803	7.9221
Q1/09			14.8857	38.9667	16.7222
Q2/09			36.0986
Q3/09			41.7792

Further Reading

• Click here to read recap for Q3 2009 major solar earnings conference calls.
• Click here to read recap for Q2 2009 major solar earnings conference calls.
• Click here to read recap for Q1 2009 major solar earnings conference calls.
• Click here for an in-house free estimate from SunPower to install roof-top system in your house.