S&P 500 chart analysis

S&P 500 has to be able to go out of the rising wedge formation to make me feel bullish.

Bond Breaks Down from 3 Month Up Trend, Commodities Tops Out

Today's themes are:

• 30 year US Treasury Bond broke steep up trend since early April, this confirms S&P 500's break out from its April downtrend last Thursday.
• Commodities (CRB index) formed a key outside reversal indicating a short term pull back will follow.

Monthly Intraday Chart for 2010 July

This is the first of a series for those who need intra-day charts but do not have access to such data, as intra-day data reveal important clues of market behavior which could not be found out in daily charts.

Without mentioning afterwards, all charts are courtesy of Google Finance

S&P 500

Shanghai

S&P 500 chart and scenario analysis

S&P 500 has been trading in up and down channels since last year.  Green line is one of the scenarios I can think of for next couple of weeks.  This is not the only one though!

UNG 3 year chart compared to SPX 5 day chart

What's the similarity between 3 year chart of United States Natural Gas (UNG) and 5 day chart of S&P 500 (SPX)?  Their shapes!

3 year chart of UNG

5 day chart of SPX

SPX went through a bowl shaped bottom in last 5 days, UNG is about to finish 50% of very similar bowl shape bottom, the difference is that the time spent by UNG for less than 50% of its bottom is 2 years, while SPX 5 days to finish its bottom.

Implication: UNG may hit $60 in 2 years, sometime in 2012! 10 times current price in 2 years.

In my gut feeling, even though UNG has hit its bottom (indicated by higher low pattern, flattening rate of change, rising 50 dma), natural gas price may still be bound to hit last year low again later this year before it really bottoms.

US indexes broke down trend

Today SPX, COMPQ and DJIA all broke down trend since April 23rd, this is in my opinion, significant development.  We will wait and see whether this indeed is start of a new trend.

US 30 yr T-bond and US Dollar chart analysis

US 30 yr T-bond

US Dollar

US 30 year T-bond is showing some signs of bearish divergence: higher high on price, lower highs on PPO, yet no similar bearish wedge is forming as US Dollar did recently.  Until its upward trend line is broken, US stock market will stay down.