Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-06

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Jun. 2012.

SPX

SSEC

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-05

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for May. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

AMZN looks ripe to correct

AMZN may retreat to retest 209, the previous resistance as its support soon

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-04

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Apr. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

Patience is Key at Time of Conflicting Signs

When there are signs in the market that are in conflict with your decision, how do you act, this is a key question in trading.  For example, stock XYZ broke out after a couple of months consolidation with zoomed volume and upward trending 50DMA, your decision tend to follow xyz's breakout.  Sure, breakout means some sort of certainty, duration of previous trend can be evidence for certainty as well, the longer the duration, the more likelihood trend is about to change; plus the volume and 50DMA, the heavier volume is, the more reliable of breakout in terms of indication of new trend's direction.  But the conflicting sign is that broad market has risen continuously for a couple of months and due for a pullback, this usually means picture is not clear, and there are still uncertainties. but conflicting signs means uncertainties.  Trading is about being patient at most of time, waiting for uncertainties to clean out by passing of time, then take action at the right time when number of uncertainties are minimal regarding whether a new trend is about to start or not.

Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-03

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Mar. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

SINA higher lows

After an 8 month downtrend that brought down SINA a whopping 66% from 148 to 48, SINA is forming an uptrend that lasted about 2.5 months by making one higher lows at 61 about 1.5 months after early Jan bottom at 48.  It's now testing upward trending 50 DMA at 68 with no special bad news, therefore it's a high probability bet that this test will result in another higher low at 68 and leads another leg up.

Downside Risk: LT trend is down, it's not clear how much higher this reflexive counter trend up leg will go.

Time Series analysis: given the previous down leg lasted 8 months, this counter trend could last 5 months which means it will end at around late May or early June.

Another note is that SINA's shape has almost followed China Shanghai Index (SSEC) like clock step.  This prediction can be applied to SSEC with a high probability

Probability of another leg up up to late May: 65%
Probability of a down leg: 35%