Leverage Short ETF 1 year relative performance

Comparing QID, SDS, VXX and FAZ 1 year relative performance in % terms: obviously VXX is the worst performer, SDS is the best, FAZ has been performing worse than QID, but recently, FAZ started to out-perform QID.

Intel (INTC) Chart Analysis

While the Stock Market is making new highs since early September, semiconductor and financials didn't participate.  The chart below shows Intel has been trending down in a series of lower highs and lower lows, with about a month in between each pivotal points.  Next important level is $16.27 because it's intersection between 38.2% retracement and lower trend line.

CAC and DAX chart analysis

DAX (German Index) broke out from ascending triangle to upside convincingly, price target in short term would be 7150

CAC (French Index) is testing upper end of its upward sloping triangle/wedge which is a little bearish.

Google (GOOG), Baidu (BIDU), Microsoft (MSFT) Chart Analysis

Google Inc. is breaking out the resistance dating back to early 2010 to the upside, the correction on GOOG seems to be over in early July when it retraced 50% of the gain.  As I write, GOOG rises 9% AH on positive Q3 earning news.  Technical speaking, GOOG could rise to 820 by August next year.

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Baidu.com Inc. is forming a a triangle, considering that Q3 earning release dated on 10/18, this triangle will be broken out on that date either to the upside or the downside.  The odds favors that BIDU will break out to the upside.

 

Microsoft Corp. is breaking out to the upside from 4 month triangle, in the short term, more upside should come in the intermediate term.

S&P 500 scenario for Q4 of 2010 update

Recent developments proved my previous prediction on S&P500 Q4 direction to be not accurate, so I adjusted my prediction here:

Two scenarios:

• A. S&P will reach 1190 in late October then drop
• B. S&P will reach 1250 in mid November then drop

The background for these two scenarios is: the market goes up in the near term due to drop of US Dollar and expectation of Fed's QE2, then after November Election, the expectation of a global slowdown in 2011 will dominate the market and will drive it down. 

Periodical Data Releases

This post compiles all periodically released economical and market data.

Economic Indicators

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index, monthly, toward the end of each month
• ECRI Weekly Leading Index, weekly, every Friday
• Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product, monthly,  last day of each month

Market Indicators

• AAII Individual Investor Sentiment Survey, weekly, every Thursday morning

Does Quantitative Easing Guarantee Higher Stock Prices?

In my opinion, stock market and economy are acting on its own schedule, driven by forceful under-current of cycles.  Human interventions, with Fed's actions included, are not causes but rather reactions to the forces of these cycles.  From this line of thinking, I wouldn't give too much hope on Fed's potential QE2 action inducing major stock market rallies.

Here is another article that looks at Japan's NIKKEI index and BoJ's QE actions, this could shed some light on this topic from historical perspective.