Monthly Intraday Charts for SPX and SSEC: 2012-03

This is a monthly series of intra-day charts for S&P 500 (SPX) and Shanghai Index (SSEC) for Mar. 2012. 

SPX

SSEC

SINA higher lows

After an 8 month downtrend that brought down SINA a whopping 66% from 148 to 48, SINA is forming an uptrend that lasted about 2.5 months by making one higher lows at 61 about 1.5 months after early Jan bottom at 48.  It's now testing upward trending 50 DMA at 68 with no special bad news, therefore it's a high probability bet that this test will result in another higher low at 68 and leads another leg up.

Downside Risk: LT trend is down, it's not clear how much higher this reflexive counter trend up leg will go.

Time Series analysis: given the previous down leg lasted 8 months, this counter trend could last 5 months which means it will end at around late May or early June.

Another note is that SINA's shape has almost followed China Shanghai Index (SSEC) like clock step.  This prediction can be applied to SSEC with a high probability

Probability of another leg up up to late May: 65%
Probability of a down leg: 35%

AMZN bullish breakout

After 2.5 month 31% down trend, and 2.5 months of side-way trading, AMZN rose 4% today with heavier than average volume with no significant news while broad market is down.

The fact that this rise happens when AMZN hovers around 50 DMA for a couple of weeks and 50 DMA is slightly tilting upwards increases the credibility of this action and the possibility that this action leads a new short-term trend.

On downsides, at 141 trailing PE, it's trading at very high premium; AAPL, the tech sector leader and heavy weight is doing a parabolic rise lately, whose potential fall will lead to a crash in broad sector.

Possibility of a short term trend to retest all-time high $246: 60%
Possibility of a fake-move: 40%