Forecast of When This Correction will End based on History

Based on history, I predict this correction which started April 16th led by financials will end either on May 7th or May 14th, both are Fridays.

TBT's recent movement indicates deflationist are correct, at least in near term

Ten Year Treasury Short ETF (TBT) broke down recently from sideway trading pattern to the downside.  If this break down is valid, ultimate price target is $24.

Financial Sector Select ETF (XLF) Chart Analysis

The market correction started on April 16th was led by financials, which can be seen in the chart of Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF).  Focusing on XLF, there are two possible correction targets: $15.73 representing 38.2% Fib retracement or $15.29 representing 50% Fib retracement.

4/30 Update
On 4/29, XLF touched $16.64 then bounced back, which confirms that XLF's current falling wedge formation.  The tip point of this formation is exactly 50% fib retracement in early June.  Falling wedge formation is usually bullish, in this case, it's preceded by an uptrend, it is a continuation pattern, which means, at some point, XLF will break to the upside.  But the real question is when will that happen.  One possibility is it will happen near 38.5% fib retracement $15.73 in early May, the other (which is shown in chart below as green line) will happen a little above 50% fib retracement $15.3 around June.  I feel the second scenario is less likely, but we should wait and see.

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Chart Analysis

Quick analysis on UNG:
After a ~4 months of 30% drop , UNG is forming a descending symmetrical triangle (with tipping point below middle line) with PPO rising which is a bullish sign.  Based on textbook definition of symmetrical triangle, price breakout of symmetrical triangle happens between about 1/2 and 3/4 of triangle's entire length, if that's true, price should break out (up or down) around late May.

Will Shanghai Index Drop to 2300?

Shanghai Composite Index broke down earlier this week from the lower edge of the slightly ascending triangle.  Will it drop to 2300, sounds very unlikely given China Q1 GDP grew 11.9% YOY, in addition, Goldman just released its bullish note on Shanghai Index saying 2900 was strong support.  Let's wait and see.

Ascending Wedge Formation Analysis

In the post bear market rally that began March 2009, major US market stock indexes have been rising in the pattern of ascending wedge formations.  A couple of wedges with less bullishly tilted angle can be drawn to confine variance stage of bullish runs of three major indexes.  For S&P 500, tipping point of past wedges have been reached, however, NASDAQ and DJIA failed to reach tipping points of past wedges.  This suggests that S&P will likely reach 1300 tipping point of the current wedge. 

S&P 500

NASDAQ

Dow Jones Industrial Average

2010/4/27 Update

Since the post was initially put up  on 4/21, the market went up a little, S&P 500 touched 1219.8 then broke down ~2.3% on 4/27, on the same day, VIX spiked 30%.  With the upper edge of this formation confirmed, if the lower edge holds, the apex tip of the rising wedge is a little bit over 1300 around September time frame.   Whether the lower edge will hold depends on where this correction will end.  One sign that this is a correction instead of THE top is that PPO on weekly chart is showing higher high.  

S&P 500's rising wedge formation as of 4/29

 

S&P 500 Chart with Bollinger Band

Here is an updated chart of NASDAQ's rising wedge formation (as of 4/29)

One interesting note about NASDAQ is if you look at the weekly chart with Bollinger Band overlay, Bollinger Band's parameters are 20,2, you will see that index has gone over-extended in a similar fashion as it did back in mid-September 2009.  At that time, it took 1.5 months for the index to trade sideways to allow Bollinger Band to catch up before it resume uptrend to gain around 300 points.  With the rally target around 2800, around 300 points away from current level, I expect either the index to trade sideways for 1.5 months or retrace at least 5% back to median of Bollinger Band before it resumes final rally to 2800.

Here is an updated chart of DJIA's rising wedge formation (as of 4/29)

DJIA chart with Bollinger Band

US Stock Market Correction Forecast and Outlook of Major Stock Index

In early 2010, many people took bearish stances on US stocks, the correction started on Jan 19th caused many to believe that the stock market top of the year is in, however, the 9% correction ended abruptly in early February, what's more surprising and unexpected was the following powerful rally that lasted more than 2 months: NASDAQ rallied 15.5%, S&P 500 rallied 12.7%, DOW rallied 11.1%.  Just as investor sentiment became vastly bullish and market turned overbought (defined as RSI70 above 70) for more than a month, on April 16th, market tumbled 1+% on extremely high volume (S&P over 6B), putting the powerful rally to a squeezing stop.

I believe there are two possible scenarios mid term if 4/16 was indeed start of a correction.  Scenario A is more favorable to bullish investors, it assumes the supporting trend line from March 09 low to Feb 10 low (blue lines) to hold until August.  Scenario B, on the other hand, doesn't take such a bullish stance.  We notice that this post bear market rally can be split into two rallies characterized by two supporting trend lines: one from March to this January, the other from this Feb to April 16th, the second rally is powerful yet it's sitting on a trend line (blue lines) less bullishly tilted than first (pink lines). This fact caused me to draw a Scenario B where we will have a third as well as last part of this rally which just like the one from Feb to April, will sit on a trend line (green lines) even less bullishly tilted.  I must admit the third supporting trend line is totally fictional, by drawing that line, I am indicating the existence of this trend line is possible.  Based on this understanding, the following charts illustrate my forecast of S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW in the mid-term (click on images to read my comments).
S&P 500

NASDAQ

 
 DOW JONES