美股熊市的对比图：今年 vs 2000年

标普500 

2000年1月至2002年5月

如图，第一波下跌从2000年8月底直至2001年3月底，4月初，时长7个月左右，从高点1520跌至1103，跌幅27.4%。

2021年四月至今（2022年6月）

如图，在2022年1月初见顶4800点，至今（2022年6月中）5个半月，跌至3664，跌幅23.6%。预测1【如果这一波的跌幅为28%，那么目标价位是3456左右，并在7月底左右】pbBrady Jiang.

NASDAQ指数

2000年1月至2002年5月

如图，在2000年3月见顶5048点，比标普500顶部早5个月左右，并在标普500见顶的8月底已经跌至4234，至2001年3月底，4月初的第一波，时长7+5=12个月左右，跌至1639，跌幅67.5%。

2021年四月至今（2022年6月）

如图，在2021年11月中见顶16057点，比标普顶部早一个半月左右，至今（2022年6月中）7个月，跌至10658，跌幅33.6%。

Target of this round of rebound?

Previous round of rebound reached 4637 which was close to 61.8% retrace of previous leg down which was 4550.  

If we are just starting another rebound like last time, we are targeting 4338 or 4246 levels as potential peak in 2-3 weeks duration.

FactCheck on 20220616, f1[#SP500 hit short term peak of 4176 on 6/2, time-wise hit, level-wise over-predicted]hit

Target of this round of correction

Is it 2472, which is 1/7 or 14.28% correction from recent high of 2872.87?

Update on 20180630: it turns out the correction low was 2532 and 2553, both were on 200 day MA lines, and the correction lasted for 3 months.

Time to Short TGT?

is now time to short TGT? Not many customers in store, the parking lot is also empty.  With AMZN and WMT, do people need TGT?

Disclaimer: I do not own any position of stocks mentioned above and nor do I plan to own any in next 72 hours.

Update on Bond Fund

I sold all my long-term bond holdings today in my 401k, the reason I sold it is because the price has gone side ways and in a holding pattern for 2 months, but TLT (10 year US bond) which my bond fund has pretty much mirrored in terms of price patterns, spiked down in last few days breaking its 50-day moving average, so assuming that TLT serves as the early indicator of price action, I am predicting that long term bond funds will resolve the downside as next price action, therefore selling all the shares now.

Bond fund price prediction (follow up)

In my previous post in April, I made bullish call on Bond market, and I am revisiting my decision on Bond fund.

What happened:

• Bond funds have made higher highs and 200-day averages are going up
• 30-year mortgage rates have reached historical low levels again, 
• US Federal Reserve decided to not raise rate in April but claimed to raise rate in June
• S&P 500 rallied since Feb and forms a short-term top and is about to decline
• US Q1 GDP growth rate came in sluggish 
• US dollar reversed 5-month downtrend and is going up
• Oil price has gone up almost 100% since Feb and may go sideways as US dollar strengthens

Prediction

• Maintain bullish prediction of Bond fund

Reasoning:

• 200 day average going up for major bond funds
• With high debt level, US Fed will try their best to keep the rates down
• US Stock market going down will help bond price

Update on June 10, 2016

Bill Gross made a bearish call on credit market, different from last April, this time he did not specify how much bond price will fall in short term, this time his bearish tone is less certain as he only said he has stopped buying long term bond, and he has started betting on market volatility.  

Source: http://wallstreetcn.com/node/247262

Actions

• Maintain bullish prediction of Bond fund prediction
• Keep close eye on bond price changes

Reasoning:

• 50 day average is strongly up and 200 day average is also up for major bond funds

Update on June 12, 2016

News articles are out to scare investors out of Bond market, saying that fair German bond yield should be 0.5%, while right now it's 0.01%, reflecting Britexit's impact on Bond market.  This is non-sense.  The risk of Britexit should already been priced into the bond price.  Looking at the 5-year chart of PMBIX, this leg of up-trend started in early 2016, and should take 1+ year, however, it seems to be final up leg in this 5+ year macro trend.

http://www.popyard.com/cgi-mod/newspage.cgi?num=3047036&r=0&j=0

Bond market prediction

This post is about contrarian thought.  i have been following a financial TV show called 财经郎眼 for some time, in a recent episode aired in late March, professor Lang Xianping predicted that corporate bond market will crash in 2016 just like mortgage backed security in 2008, hence asking people to avoid investing in bond this year, I am taking a different opinion because of these 2 facts:

1. Although MBS crashed in 2008, in that same year, overall bond market got 8%+ return, how to explain that?

2. Many bond funds, PIMCO and Prudential etc have formed ABC patterns recently and just broken above C point which are bullish signs.

Disclosure: I am invested in Prudential Total Return Bond Fund (PDBAX)